Myanmar's political future is more uncertain than ever following the 2021 coup, which plunged the country into a civil war that has eroded the military junta's control. The Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, has struggled to maintain power, losing control of border regions and suffering from low morale and desertions. Rebel groups, united under the National Unity Government (NUG), have made significant advances, threatening the once-unthinkable prospect of rebels nearing central cities like Mandalay. However, the NUG’s diverse coalition—comprising various ethnic armed groups—remains fragile, with historical rivalries between factions posing risks to long-term unity. While the fall of the military junta seems increasingly likely, the real challenge lies in how the NUG will manage competing interests within its ranks. Myanmar’s future remains in the balance, as the struggle for power intensifies amid deepening instability.
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