Myanmar: A break from the past?

The political future of Myanmar is more uncertain than ever following the 2021 coup, which set the country into a civil war that has weakened the military junta's control. The Tatmadaw, the army of Myanmar, has struggled to maintain control, losing ground at the borders and suffering low morale and desertions. Rebel groups, united in the National Unity Government (NUG), have pushed relentlessly, threatening the hitherto unthinkable danger of rebels encroaching on central cities like Mandalay. The NUG's multi-ethnic alliance—of numerous ethnic armed groups—is, however, fragile, with deep-seated rivalries between factions teetering on the edge of destroying long-term unity. Even with the removal of the military junta which seems increasingly probable, the real test is how the NUG will manage rival interests within its own coalition. Myanmar's future is uncertain as the struggle for power intensifies in the wake of increasing instability.

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